Thursday, July 17, 2008

Mathematical Proof There Is No Global Warming Crisis -- IPCC Assumptions, Sorta Made Up Crap

Mathematical proof that there is no “climate crisis” appears today in a major, peer-reviewed paper in Physics and Society, a learned journal of the 10,000-strong American Physical Society, SPPI reports.

Christopher Monckton, who once advised Margaret Thatcher, demonstrates via 30 equations that computer models used by the UN’s climate panel (IPCC) were pre-programmed with overstated values for the three variables whose product is “climate sensitivity” (temperature increase in response to greenhouse-gas increase), resulting in a 500-2000% overstatement of CO2’s effect on temperature in the IPCC’s latest climate assessment report, published in 2007.

Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered [http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/index.cfm] demonstrates that later this century a doubling of the concentration of CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels will increase global mean surface temperature not by the 6 °F predicted by the IPCC but, harmlessly, by little more than 1 °F. Lord Monckton concludes – (...)

  • “… Perhaps real-world climate sensitivity is very much below the IPCC’s estimates. Perhaps, therefore, there is no ‘climate crisis’ at all. … The correct policy approach to a non-problem is to have the courage to do nothing.”
  • The IPCC’s 2007 climate summary overstated CO2’s impact on temperature by 500-2000%;
  • CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 °F (0.6 °C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;
  • Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly;
  • The IPCC’s values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500;
  • The IPCC’s values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated;
  • “Global warming” halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years;
  • Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling;
  • The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists’ draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%;
  • It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible;
  • Mars, Jupiter, Neptune’s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed;
  • In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 year
I have said it repeatedly, we really don't know what we are doing and this only shows that all of our assumptions are suspect.  The debate cannot be over when the input is not real.
DKK
Science and Public Policy Institute
Via Say Anything Blog

2 comments:

Joseph said...

I've written a not-too-complicated analysis , and the result I get is a climate sensitivity of 3.46C. Scrutiny is welcome.

LifeTrek said...

Everyone, go read Joseph's analysis. Just keep in mind he doesn't have the ability to provide a level of confidence in the analysis primarily because he can't put a level of confidence on the inputs.

There is also that problem with the CO2 estimate not matching accepted historic levels, but if they do then they don't match the data sets.

His analysis may be on the mark, but then again maybe not.

Again, as I have said repeatedly, we just don't know enough to implement world changing policies based on Gore's Law.
David

 
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