Wednesday, April 30, 2008

el Nino, la Nina, Cousins, Aunts and Uncles

la-nina-and-pacific-decadal-oscillation-cool-the-pacific (PDF)

The announcement by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had shifted to its cool phase (Fig. 1) is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes.

Global temperatures peaked in 1998 and have not been exceeded since then. Pacific Ocean temperatures began a cooling phase in 1999 that was briefly interrupted by El Nino and dramatic cooling in 2007-2008 appears to be a continuation of a global cooling trend set up by the PDO cool phase (Fig. 1) as predicted [shown in the figure below].

Thus, we seem to be headed toward several decades of global cooling, rather than the catastrophic global warming predicted by IPCC.

If we are lucky, this PDO will be a short event. 2-4 years. If we are unlucky, and it is the “full Monty” phase switch at 20-30 years as Easterling suggests, we may be in for extended cooler times. This may result in some significant extended worldwide effects, notably on agriculture.

We Really have no idea and what we do know isn't enough to make society altering policy.
Watts Up With That -- More on the PDO shift

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